Monday, May 02, 2011

The death of Osama

Osama Bin Laden is dead. 

The formal announcement was out some hours ago, and the world (read the Americans and their well-wishers) is celebrating.
I am writing this post, to just analyze the situation, and its effects on the world. I will try to be short and precise, but I am no expert, and hence pardon any of my immature thoughts. To avoid any confusions between Obama(USA Prez.) and Osama (The dead terrorist), I am going to use their complete names henceforth.
It is not feasible for me to write things from all the involved's point of view at the same time, so I might sometimes be repeating things due to overlaps. And, it might be early and all to write this down, still, am preferring it to write down now, so that I can judge later how much of my 'general analysis' held good. :)
Finally, this might qualify to be my longest post till date, so my apologies in advance, for whatever length you read. :)

Well, first, allow me to talk about the effects of this incident on various stakeholders:
  • Pakistan
    • Role in hiding Osama Bin Laden
      Well, this is not my creativity. The internet is abuzz, with Pakistan's involvement in hiding Osama Bin Laden.
      P. Chidambaram, our dear Indian Home minister, has gone on record, accusing Pakistan's, and ISI's involvement in hiding Osama Bin Laden.
    • Operation's secrecy from Pak
      To me, its just a pointer to the fact, that Pakistan can not be trusted, and that it is equally hostile, to its enemies, and its perceived allies.
      It also highlights the amount of trust (or the lack of it) the USA places in Pakistan. After all, we are talking of absolute secrecy.
    • Label of terrorist nation?
      Well, if you are a supporter of such terrorists, then you got to be a terrorist yourself. By hiding Osama Bin Laden in its home-soil, Pakistan might rightly attract the title of a terrorist nation.
  • India
    • Shouting Pak's guilt
      Watch any Indian News Channel coverage today, and you will have an idea of what we are discussing here.
    • Weightage to claims that Pak is terror heaven
      Well, if you are assissting terrorrists, you've got to be terror heaven.
    • A diversion from Anti corruption headlines?
      Yeah, I agree this one is not on the lines of terror, but am talking of the Indian scenario in general. I am sure a lot of footage will be spend on covering Osama Bin Laden's death. And all this tamasha might last for a week. So should that be enough time for the people to, errr...., forget about the corruption issues? Another case of, 'Out of sight is out of mind', maybe?
  • USA: General
    • Victory
      The death of Osama Bin Laden is surely a symbol of USA's win in the war on terror.
    • Possible return of Barack Obama
      Yeah, maybe its too early to speculate, but then, the nation will just love him and his administration for having caught the terrorist who gave the world nightmares.
    • Faster withdrawl of forces from Afghanistan?
      No, I don't think so. Just beacause the head of a terrorist organization died, does not mean that the organization is dead. Though it may help speed things up, still, only time can tell, when the forces be removed.
    • More teeth to war against terror?
      Yeah, for sure. After the wars on Afghanistan and Iraq, the catching and execution of Saddam Hussein, Osama Bin Laden was the only symbol of USA's limited success at the war. And now, that has been eliminated as well. So, surely, this will add more teeths to the current war on terror.
  • USA-Pak
    • Relations bound to hit a new low?
      Yups, the relations will hit a new low. From the face of all that has been recently happening (Pakistan's China offer to Afghans, asking USA to lessen its drone attacks, and the Davis episode, USA's decision to operate its drones from Afghanistan, attack on NATO supply convoys, and much more), The relations between USA and Pakistan are bound to hit a new low. The Pakis have now to face a more wary USA, more distrustful situation.
    • Funding to Pak Govt
      Well, if the relations are hitting a low, then obviously, the economics equations will change. Though this incidence is not the lone one  leading to this effect, yet, it is one in the series of many, and hence is bound to have an impact.
  • The Taliban and Al Qaeda
    • The morale
      Its hard to predict.
      There might be a vacuum, since their very leader who could manage to hide for some ten years. On the other hand, there may be anger, because of the death of their leader, and hence the world must be prepared for a backlash.
    • Future course
      Like in the point just above, it is hard to predict as well.
      There might be strikes, though I believe them to be separated by some distance in time, since you just don't go on a Rambo mode and destroy everyone in a day in real life.
      There might be bigger strikes, like the 9/11, so as to propulgate more fear among the general masses and give bigger headaches.
      There might be more hostile attacks on the western forces, as well. And there is no reason, why these should be limited to just Afghanistan or Iraq. Every nation, where AlQaeda has links and where the western forces are present, has the chances of such attacks. And that includes Pakistan.
  • USA-Afghanistan
    • Taliban's morale
      Its definitely going to be impacted and is already discussed..
    • Afghanistan
      Well, even though Osama Bin Laden is dead, it won't have much impact on Taliban in general. In fact, the Taliban is going to be more hostile in its approach towards the general public of Afghanistans
    • Withdrawl of troops?
      I think the time for withdrawl has further been prolonged. But for the better. There is now a better chance for Afghanistan to survive, and hence, the troops might be maintained for a little longer.
  • The world
    • That includes...
      the Americans and their well-wishers, in general, apart from the various European countries who share he nemesis of terrorism with America.
    • Celebrations
      Of course, there will be celebrations going on in many part of the world. And there will be a sigh of relief from most quarters.
    • The repurcussions
      This is what will be worrying the most, since, the genie is officially out of the bottle now. And this genie grants no wishes, it only wreaks havoc. );

Now let me talk about the whole incident itself, minus any aftereffects. A cynic touch here and there, but then, am just speculating. :)
So here it begins:
  • Is Osama bin Laden dead?
    • Personally, I don't believe that Osama bin Laden is dead.
    • I think he is inside some secret US jail now, and undergoing a treatment, which was long overdue for him. After all, just killing the devil in the dark is no fun, some guys just deserve the worst.
    • Jokes apart, the reason I believe he should be in a jail is the loads of information he must be carrrying with respect to Taliban and Al-Qaeda, that the USA must be more than willing to lay its hands on.
  • Are you sure?
    • Yes I am.
    • Beacause you just don't kill someone, who could be so much reourceful for you. In fact, I believe, all his accomplices inside that mansion, would be alive as well.
    • And I say all this, because the USA had sent in a 'Seals' team. They are both, an extermination unit as well as a recovery unit. The target was premeditated, and so they must would have had the instructions to kill, only if extremely urgent.
  • The burial at the sea
    • Well, I am literally impressed with the way they handled the so-called burial of the dead.
      Its so called because am not sure if he is dead :)
      I won't be sure, even if you showed me the dead body :)
    • But anyways, they buried him at the sea, so that no one enshrines him, and so that he doesn't generate a fan following? Wow. Absolutely fantastic. Surely, the USA did out-think us commoners. Love it.
  • Some big plot stories?
    • I don't know how this one entered my mind, but Just for the humour's sake, am mentioning it.
    • Maybe, the USA had caught Osama bin Laden a long time back. President Barack Obama was loosing a foot in his ongoing election campaign, so he needed something big to come back in power. And Osama bin Laden wasn't giving anything new, all the juices had already been drained out of him. So maybe the USA planted all this. To happen in Pakistan, so that they could let the world speculate that Pakistan was wrongly involved. After all, the relations haven't been the best, and Pak was actually thinking of switching principle allies.
      Kills 3 birds in one shot.
    • I guess, that would be Pakistan's explanation of how Osama bin Laden was hiding near the capital, why he was caught now only, and why Pakistan is innocent in all this.

PS: Moral of the Story
The story teaches us, that you need to pursue the perpetrators of crime, no matter where they are. Shouldn't Indian leaders learn something?

Also, This whole incidence raises a question on the sovereignty of Pakistan. Is it just another banana republic? Is it even a republic? There are rounds of diplomacy going on, with Pakistan releasing long notes on foreign policy, and USA saying, that "if Pakistan can't wash out the crminals in its home land, we will." In fact, Pakistan had to actually warn India, to not take such a step.

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